Promotion League · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Kreuzlingen at 50%, the draw at 21% and Cham at 29%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kreuzlingen have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Cham 1 in 2. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 58% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.12 for Kreuzlingen and 1.57 for Cham. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kreuzlingen | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| Cham | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Kreuzlingen season stats · Cham season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.