2. Deild · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Hvíti Riddarinn at 56%, the draw at 20% and KFG at 24%, from expected goals of 2.24 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hvíti Riddarinn have 8 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), KFG 14 in 17 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.24 for Hvíti Riddarinn and 1.43 for KFG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hvíti Riddarinn | 17 | 47% | 47% | 59% |
| KFG | 17 | 82% | 71% | 76% |
More: Hvíti Riddarinn season stats · KFG season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.