Champions League · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Champions League average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 59%, the draw at 21% and Sabah FA at 20%, from expected goals of 2.09 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hapoel Beer Sheva have 20 in 36 this season (11 of 18 at home), Sabah FA 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 36 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.09 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.15 for Sabah FA. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 36 | 56% | 39% | 56% |
| Sabah FA | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.