2. Deild · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 75% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjolnir at 59%, the draw at 18% and Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 23%, from expected goals of 2.55 and 1.58.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjolnir have 15 in 17 this season (7 of 9 at home), Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 14 in 17 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 76% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 74%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 2.55 for Fjolnir and 1.58 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 75%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fjolnir | 17 | 88% | 76% | 100% |
| Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 17 | 82% | 65% | 65% |
More: Fjolnir season stats · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.