Svenska Cupen · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Svenska Cupen average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts FBK Karlstad at 62%, the draw at 22% and GIF Sundsvall at 17%, from expected goals of 1.92 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. Svenska Cupen has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FBK Karlstad have 0 in 0 this season, GIF Sundsvall 12 in 19 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.92 for FBK Karlstad and 0.88 for GIF Sundsvall. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBK Karlstad | 0 | — | — | — |
| GIF Sundsvall | 19 | 63% | 37% | 47% |
More: GIF Sundsvall season stats · Svenska Cupen table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.