Svenska Cupen · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Svenska Cupen average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Enköping at 55%, the draw at 22% and Vasteras SK FK at 24%, from expected goals of 1.97 and 1.23.
The league sets the starting point. Svenska Cupen has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Enköping have 0 in 0 this season, Vasteras SK FK 10 in 17 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.97 for Enköping and 1.23 for Vasteras SK FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enköping | 0 | — | — | — |
| Vasteras SK FK | 17 | 59% | 41% | 47% |
More: Vasteras SK FK season stats · Svenska Cupen table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.