Copa Libertadores · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Copa Libertadores average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Deportes Tolima at 29%, the draw at 23% and Independiente del Valle at 47%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportes Tolima have 11 in 27 this season (7 of 15 at home), Independiente del Valle 16 in 25 (8 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.34 for Deportes Tolima and 1.75 for Independiente del Valle. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 27 | 41% | 26% | 52% |
| Independiente del Valle | 25 | 64% | 44% | 48% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.