Copa Libertadores · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 42%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Coquimbo Unido at 42%, the draw at 31% and Platense at 27%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Coquimbo Unido have 9 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), Platense 6 in 21 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.11 for Coquimbo Unido and 0.83 for Platense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coquimbo Unido | 17 | 53% | 35% | 65% |
| Platense | 21 | 29% | 14% | 38% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.