Copa Libertadores · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 43%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Cerro Porteno at 42%, the draw at 29% and Palmeiras at 30%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cerro Porteno have 7 in 21 this season (2 of 11 at home), Palmeiras 13 in 23 (8 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Cerro Porteno and 1 for Palmeiras. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Porteno | 21 | 33% | 19% | 38% |
| Palmeiras | 23 | 57% | 26% | 61% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.