Super League · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 12:35. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Shanghai Shenhua at 41%, the draw at 22% and Beijing Guoan at 37%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.71.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shanghai Shenhua have 14 in 22 this season (8 of 11 at home), Beijing Guoan 14 in 22 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.81 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.71 for Beijing Guoan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shenhua | 22 | 64% | 55% | 68% |
| Beijing Guoan | 22 | 64% | 36% | 68% |
More: Shanghai Shenhua season stats · Beijing Guoan season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.