Greek Cup · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Greek Cup average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Levadiakos at 59%, the draw at 22% and Asteras Tripolis at 19%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Levadiakos have 21 in 32 this season (11 of 16 at home), Asteras Tripolis 17 in 36 (7 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.94 for Levadiakos and 1.02 for Asteras Tripolis. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levadiakos | 32 | 66% | 50% | 56% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 36 | 47% | 22% | 50% |
More: Levadiakos season stats · Asteras Tripolis season stats · Greek Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.