Serie C · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Guarani Campinas at 55%, the draw at 25% and Ypiranga-RS at 21%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 0.9.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 42% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 58% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 46% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Guarani Campinas 1.67, draw 3.40, Ypiranga-RS 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Guarani Campinas have 8 in 24 this season (4 of 12 at home), Ypiranga-RS 9 in 16 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.64 for Guarani Campinas and 0.9 for Ypiranga-RS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarani Campinas | 24 | 33% | 25% | 50% |
| Ypiranga-RS | 16 | 56% | 13% | 63% |
More: Guarani Campinas season stats · Ypiranga-RS season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.