Serie C · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Ferroviária at 38%, the draw at 32% and Paysandu at 30%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 0.86.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 39% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 61% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 50% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ferroviária 2.05, draw 3.10, Paysandu 3.25.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ferroviária have 5 in 16 this season (1 of 8 at home), Paysandu 10 in 16 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 31% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Ferroviária and 0.86 for Paysandu. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferroviária | 16 | 31% | 25% | 38% |
| Paysandu | 16 | 63% | 25% | 75% |
More: Ferroviária season stats · Paysandu season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.