Copa Argentina · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 27% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Argentina average is 33%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 73% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Riestra at 45%, the draw at 33% and Gimnasia L.P. at 22%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 0.65.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Argentina has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Riestra have 2 in 21 this season (1 of 11 at home), Gimnasia L.P. 11 in 23 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 21% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 25%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Deportivo Riestra and 0.65 for Gimnasia L.P.. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 21 | 10% | 0% | 19% |
| Gimnasia L.P. | 23 | 48% | 17% | 39% |
More: Deportivo Riestra season stats · Gimnasia L.P. season stats · Copa Argentina table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.