Copa Sudamericana · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Sudamericana average is 36%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Recoleta at 40%, the draw at 25% and Boca Juniors at 36%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 36% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Recoleta have 14 in 22 this season (7 of 11 at home), Boca Juniors 7 in 22 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.42 for Boca Juniors. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Recoleta | 22 | 64% | 32% | 68% |
| Boca Juniors | 22 | 32% | 9% | 50% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.