Greek Cup · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Greek Cup average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Atromitos at 41%, the draw at 26% and Pyrgos 1968 at 32%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atromitos have 19 in 36 this season (10 of 18 at home), Pyrgos 1968 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Atromitos and 1.2 for Pyrgos 1968. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos | 36 | 53% | 25% | 47% |
| Pyrgos 1968 | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Atromitos season stats · Greek Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.