1. Deild · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Völsungur at 43%, the draw at 23% and Vestri at 35%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.57.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 66% | 65% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 34% | 35% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | 69% | 67% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Völsungur 2.35, draw 3.50, Vestri 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Völsungur have 11 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), Vestri 10 in 18 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Völsungur and 1.57 for Vestri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Völsungur season stats · Vestri season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.