1. Deild · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 20:15. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts Throttur Reykjavik at 54%, the draw at 22% and Fylkir at 24%, from expected goals of 2 and 1.28.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 66% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 34% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 70% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Throttur Reykjavik 1.85, draw 3.75, Fylkir 3.25.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Throttur Reykjavik have 9 in 18 this season (3 of 9 at home), Fylkir 12 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2 for Throttur Reykjavik and 1.28 for Fylkir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Throttur Reykjavik | 18 | 50% | 39% | 67% |
| Fylkir | 18 | 67% | 44% | 50% |
More: Throttur Reykjavik season stats · Fylkir season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.