Greek Cup · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Greek Cup average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | no pick |
The result model puts Kallithea at 50%, the draw at 25% and Larisa at 25%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.01.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kallithea have 0 in 0 this season, Larisa 14 in 36 (8 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 36 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Kallithea and 1.01 for Larisa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kallithea | 0 | — | — | — |
| Larisa | 36 | 39% | 19% | 61% |
More: Larisa season stats · Greek Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.