Greek Cup · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Greek Cup average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | no pick |
The result model puts Iraklis 1908 at 54%, the draw at 23% and Volos NFC at 23%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Iraklis 1908 have 0 in 0 this season, Volos NFC 17 in 32 (9 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Iraklis 1908 and 1.09 for Volos NFC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraklis 1908 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Volos NFC | 32 | 53% | 19% | 56% |
More: Volos NFC season stats · Greek Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.