1. Deild · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts IR Reykjavik at 46%, the draw at 24% and Njardvik at 29%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.27.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 62% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 38% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 68% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: IR Reykjavik 3.60, draw 3.70, Njardvik 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IR Reykjavik have 12 in 18 this season (5 of 9 at home), Njardvik 9 in 18 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.66 for IR Reykjavik and 1.27 for Njardvik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Reykjavik | 18 | 67% | 50% | 72% |
| Njardvik | 18 | 50% | 33% | 44% |
More: IR Reykjavik season stats · Njardvik season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.