Liga Pro · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Aucas at 34%, the draw at 29% and LDU de Quito at 38%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.16.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 40% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 60% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 46% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Aucas 2.70, draw 3.30, LDU de Quito 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aucas have 10 in 24 this season (6 of 12 at home), LDU de Quito 6 in 24 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Aucas and 1.16 for LDU de Quito. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aucas | 24 | 42% | 21% | 38% |
| LDU de Quito | 24 | 25% | 4% | 33% |
More: Aucas season stats · LDU de Quito season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.