Meistaradeildin · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistaradeildin average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts AB at 26%, the draw at 22% and KI Klaksvik at 52%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.94.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 60% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 40% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: AB 7.50, draw 4.75, KI Klaksvik 1.30.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AB have 10 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), KI Klaksvik 7 in 18 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.32 for AB and 1.94 for KI Klaksvik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB | 18 | 56% | 33% | 56% |
| KI Klaksvik | 18 | 39% | 28% | 56% |
More: AB season stats · KI Klaksvik season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.