1. Division · Sunday, 16 August 2026. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–3). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Vendsyssel FF at 39%, the draw at 26% and AB Copenhagen at 35%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vendsyssel FF have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), AB Copenhagen 1 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.41 for Vendsyssel FF and 1.33 for AB Copenhagen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vendsyssel FF | 3 | 67% | 33% | 100% |
| AB Copenhagen | 3 | 33% | 33% | 67% |
More: Vendsyssel FF season stats · AB Copenhagen season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.