Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 4–2 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts NSI Runavik at 59%, the draw at 23% and EB / Streymur at 18%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 0.85.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 69% | 59% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 31% | 41% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: NSI Runavik 1.22, draw 5.75, EB / Streymur 8.00.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NSI Runavik have 10 in 18 this season (4 of 9 at home), EB / Streymur 10 in 18 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 63%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.77 for NSI Runavik and 0.85 for EB / Streymur. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSI Runavik | 18 | 56% | 33% | 50% |
| EB / Streymur | 18 | 56% | 17% | 67% |
More: NSI Runavik season stats · EB / Streymur season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.