1. Division · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 79% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 21% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Kongsvinger at 46%, the draw at 18% and Haugesund at 36%, from expected goals of 2.78 and 2.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 | 77% | 79% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.20 | 23% | 21% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.25 | 75% | 67% | -8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kongsvinger 1.73, draw 4.50, Haugesund 3.60.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kongsvinger have 15 in 17 this season (8 of 8 at home), Haugesund 14 in 17 (8 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 78% and 75%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 74%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 89%, from expected goals of 2.78 for Kongsvinger and 2.46 for Haugesund. Folding in 30% of that view gives 79%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kongsvinger | 17 | 88% | 53% | 82% |
| Haugesund | 17 | 82% | 76% | 82% |
More: Kongsvinger season stats · Haugesund season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.