A Lyga · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 16:45. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Kauno Žalgiris at 53%, the draw at 23% and TransINVEST Vilnius at 23%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.11.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 59% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 41% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 52% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kauno Žalgiris 1.48, draw 4.00, TransINVEST Vilnius 5.25.
The league sets the starting point. A Lyga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kauno Žalgiris have 14 in 23 this season (7 of 13 at home), TransINVEST Vilnius 17 in 25 (11 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Kauno Žalgiris and 1.11 for TransINVEST Vilnius. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris | 23 | 61% | 30% | 43% |
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 25 | 68% | 36% | 60% |
More: Kauno Žalgiris season stats · TransINVEST Vilnius season stats · A Lyga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.