Superettan · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 12:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts IFK Varnamo at 34%, the draw at 26% and Ostersunds FK at 39%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.35.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 53% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 47% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 56% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: IFK Varnamo 2.40, draw 3.30, Ostersunds FK 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IFK Varnamo have 12 in 18 this season (4 of 8 at home), Ostersunds FK 8 in 18 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.25 for IFK Varnamo and 1.35 for Ostersunds FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Varnamo | 18 | 67% | 50% | 50% |
| Ostersunds FK | 18 | 44% | 28% | 61% |
More: IFK Varnamo season stats · Ostersunds FK season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.