League Cup · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 14:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | no pick |
The result model puts Hibernian at 42%, the draw at 25% and Partick at 33%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.31.
The league sets the starting point. League Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hibernian have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Partick 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Hibernian and 1.31 for Partick. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Hibernian season stats · Partick season stats · League Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.