Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts HB Torshavn at 65%, the draw at 19% and B68 at 16%, from expected goals of 2.22 and 1.01.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 63% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 37% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: HB Torshavn 1.28, draw 5.25, B68 7.00.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HB Torshavn have 12 in 18 this season (4 of 8 at home), B68 10 in 18 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 56%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.22 for HB Torshavn and 1.01 for B68. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HB Torshavn | 18 | 67% | 39% | 67% |
| B68 | 18 | 56% | 33% | 56% |
More: HB Torshavn season stats · B68 season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.