Serie C · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Floresta at 47%, the draw at 27% and Anápolis at 25%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 0.93.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.25 | 29% | 39% | +10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 71% | 61% | -10% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 46% | +11% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Floresta 2.25, draw 2.62, Anápolis 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Floresta have 9 in 16 this season (4 of 8 at home), Anápolis 6 in 16 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Floresta and 0.93 for Anápolis. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Floresta season stats · Anápolis season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.