Serie C · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 22:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Confiança at 35%, the draw at 28% and Maringá at 37%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.21.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 40% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 60% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 46% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Confiança 2.75, draw 2.90, Maringá 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Confiança have 4 in 16 this season (2 of 8 at home), Maringá 11 in 16 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 31% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Confiança and 1.21 for Maringá. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Confiança season stats · Maringá season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.