Serie C · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Caxias at 43%, the draw at 31% and Figueirense at 26%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 0.82.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 39% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 61% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 51% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Caxias 1.83, draw 3.00, Figueirense 4.00.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Caxias have 5 in 16 this season (3 of 8 at home), Figueirense 8 in 16 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Caxias and 0.82 for Figueirense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caxias | 16 | 31% | 0% | 50% |
| Figueirense | 16 | 50% | 25% | 56% |
More: Caxias season stats · Figueirense season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.