FAI Cup · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 4–0 (half-time 2–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts Bohemians at 42%, the draw at 27% and Longford Town at 32%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. FAI Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bohemians have 15 in 27 this season (6 of 13 at home), Longford Town 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Bohemians and 1.17 for Longford Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians | 27 | 56% | 33% | 63% |
| Longford Town | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Bohemians season stats · FAI Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.