Serie C · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 22:30. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Barra at 39%, the draw at 29% and AO Itabaiana at 32%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.06.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 34% | 36% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 66% | 64% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 44% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Barra 1.75, draw 2.90, AO Itabaiana 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Barra have 7 in 16 this season (4 of 7 at home), AO Itabaiana 4 in 16 (1 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Barra and 1.06 for AO Itabaiana. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barra | 16 | 44% | 13% | 50% |
| AO Itabaiana | 16 | 25% | 19% | 38% |
More: Barra season stats · AO Itabaiana season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.