Community Shield · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 3–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Arsenal at 50%, the draw at 25% and Manchester City at 25%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. Community Shield has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Arsenal have 20 in 38 this season (11 of 19 at home), Manchester City 24 in 38 (10 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Arsenal and 1.04 for Manchester City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 38 | 53% | 24% | 47% |
| Manchester City | 38 | 63% | 21% | 50% |
More: Arsenal season stats · Manchester City season stats · Community Shield table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.