Superettan · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 14:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts United Nordic at 40%, the draw at 21% and Varbergs BoIS FC at 39%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.87.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 63% | +9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 37% | -9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 58% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: United Nordic 2.20, draw 3.30, Varbergs BoIS FC 2.80.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. United Nordic have 8 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), Varbergs BoIS FC 13 in 18 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 1.88 for United Nordic and 1.87 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Nordic | 18 | 44% | 39% | 67% |
| Varbergs BoIS FC | 18 | 72% | 44% | 61% |
More: United Nordic season stats · Varbergs BoIS FC season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.