Coppa Italia · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 17:30. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Udinese at 42%, the draw at 28% and Padova at 30%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.01.
The league sets the starting point. Coppa Italia has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Udinese have 17 in 38 this season (7 of 19 at home), Padova 15 in 38 (8 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Udinese and 1.01 for Padova. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Udinese season stats · Padova season stats · Coppa Italia table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.