Coppa Italia · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 20:15. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Torino at 45%, the draw at 24% and Carrarese at 31%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. Coppa Italia has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Torino have 24 in 38 this season (13 of 19 at home), Carrarese 19 in 38 (11 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Torino and 1.37 for Carrarese. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Torino season stats · Carrarese season stats · Coppa Italia table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.