Super League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 12:35. Final score 2–4 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Tianjin Teda at 33%, the draw at 25% and Beijing Guoan at 41%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 58% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 42% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 63% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Tianjin Teda 2.75, draw 3.50, Beijing Guoan 2.40.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tianjin Teda have 11 in 21 this season (7 of 10 at home), Beijing Guoan 13 in 21 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Tianjin Teda and 1.46 for Beijing Guoan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Teda | 21 | 52% | 19% | 57% |
| Beijing Guoan | 21 | 62% | 33% | 67% |
More: Tianjin Teda season stats · Beijing Guoan season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.