FAI Cup · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 19:45. Final score 4–0 (half-time 2–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts Sligo Rovers at 31%, the draw at 25% and Kerry at 44%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. FAI Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sligo Rovers have 13 in 27 this season (7 of 13 at home), Kerry 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Sligo Rovers and 1.5 for Kerry. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers | 27 | 48% | 30% | 48% |
| Kerry | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Sligo Rovers season stats · FAI Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.