2. Deild · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 6–2 (half-time 3–2). Before kick-off we rated it 77% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 8, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 23% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 73% | 27% | Yes |
The result model puts Selfoss at 50%, the draw at 19% and Fjolnir at 32%, from expected goals of 2.55 and 2.05.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 75% | 77% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.75 | 25% | 23% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Selfoss 2.00, draw 4.10, Fjolnir 2.70.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Selfoss have 13 in 16 this season (7 of 7 at home), Fjolnir 14 in 16 (7 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 76% and 78%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 76%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 75%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 84%, from expected goals of 2.55 for Selfoss and 2.05 for Fjolnir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 77%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Selfoss season stats · Fjolnir season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.