Serie C · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 23:30. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 72% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 72% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Santa Cruz at 42%, the draw at 37% and Maranhão at 21%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 0.54.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 28% | -11% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 72% | +11% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 42% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Santa Cruz 2.05, draw 3.10, Maranhão 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santa Cruz have 4 in 16 this season (0 of 7 at home), Maranhão 7 in 16 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 18%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Santa Cruz and 0.54 for Maranhão. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 16 | 25% | 13% | 44% |
| Maranhão | 16 | 44% | 6% | 44% |
More: Santa Cruz season stats · Maranhão season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.