1. Division · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 75% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Ranheim at 41%, the draw at 19% and Stromsgodset at 40%, from expected goals of 2.42 and 2.37.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 76% | 75% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 24% | 25% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.30 | 72% | 65% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ranheim 3.70, draw 4.00, Stromsgodset 1.70.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ranheim have 16 in 17 this season (8 of 9 at home), Stromsgodset 11 in 17 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 78% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 86%, from expected goals of 2.42 for Ranheim and 2.37 for Stromsgodset. Folding in 30% of that view gives 75%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranheim | 17 | 94% | 82% | 82% |
| Stromsgodset | 17 | 65% | 41% | 59% |
More: Ranheim season stats · Stromsgodset season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.