1. Division · Saturday, 15 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 73% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts Ranheim at 34%, the draw at 20% and Stromsgodset at 46%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ranheim have 16 in 17 this season (8 of 9 at home), Stromsgodset 11 in 17 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 78% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 17 and 17 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 72% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 83%, from expected goals of 2.12 for Ranheim and 2.45 for Stromsgodset. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranheim | 17 | 94% | 82% | 82% |
| Stromsgodset | 17 | 65% | 41% | 59% |
More: Ranheim season stats · Stromsgodset season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.