Czech Liga · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 3–2 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Plzen at 40%, the draw at 24% and Zlin at 35%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 1.45.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 55% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 45% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.05 | 45% | 48% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Plzen 1.27, draw 5.00, Zlin 9.50.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Plzen have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), Zlin 1 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.56 for Plzen and 1.45 for Zlin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Plzen season stats · Zlin season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.