Liga Pro · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 67% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Manta FC at 31%, the draw at 35% and Leones del Norte at 35%, from expected goals of 0.78 and 0.85.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 33% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 67% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 46% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Manta FC 2.50, draw 3.00, Leones del Norte 2.88.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Manta FC have 6 in 24 this season (2 of 12 at home), Leones del Norte 8 in 24 (6 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 23%, from expected goals of 0.78 for Manta FC and 0.85 for Leones del Norte. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manta FC | 24 | 25% | 8% | 29% |
| Leones del Norte | 24 | 33% | 8% | 46% |
More: Manta FC season stats · Leones del Norte season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.