2. Deild · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 65% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Magni at 45%, the draw at 22% and Kormákur / Hvöt at 33%, from expected goals of 1.84 and 1.55.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 65% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 35% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Magni 2.55, draw 3.80, Kormákur / Hvöt 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Magni have 11 in 16 this season (5 of 8 at home), Kormákur / Hvöt 9 in 16 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.84 for Magni and 1.55 for Kormákur / Hvöt. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magni | 16 | 69% | 56% | 75% |
| Kormákur / Hvöt | 16 | 56% | 50% | 69% |
More: Magni season stats · Kormákur / Hvöt season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.