1. Division · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 5–1 (half-time 4–0). Before kick-off we rated it 70% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Lyn at 26%, the draw at 20% and ODD Ballklubb at 54%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 2.25.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 70% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 30% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | 69% | 59% | -9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Lyn 2.70, draw 3.60, ODD Ballklubb 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lyn have 12 in 17 this season (7 of 9 at home), ODD Ballklubb 13 in 17 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Lyn and 2.25 for ODD Ballklubb. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyn | 17 | 71% | 41% | 47% |
| ODD Ballklubb | 17 | 76% | 59% | 65% |
More: Lyn season stats · ODD Ballklubb season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.