Promotion League · Saturday, 15 August 2026. Final score 4–3 (half-time 3–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 73% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts Lugano II at 24%, the draw at 20% and Luzern II at 56%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 2.4.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lugano II have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Luzern II 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 78%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Lugano II and 2.4 for Luzern II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Lugano II season stats · Luzern II season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.