2. Deild · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 3–4 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 77% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 23% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts KFG at 34%, the draw at 20% and Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 47%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 2.28.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 | 77% | 77% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 23% | 23% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: KFG 4.00, draw 4.75, Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KFG have 13 in 16 this season (7 of 8 at home), Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 13 in 16 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 76%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 79%, from expected goals of 1.94 for KFG and 2.28 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 77%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFG | 16 | 81% | 69% | 75% |
| Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 16 | 81% | 63% | 63% |
More: KFG season stats · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.